Eva Koulouriotis writes an article in OrientXXI, originally published in French, about Bashar Assad’s current pressing predicament which can be summed up in him being stuck in between three major forces in the region (Iran, Russia and Israel), stressing that Assad’s alliance with Iran has become a significant burden in the Middle East, especially after the outbreak of the Syrian revolution in 2011.
Iran intervened militarily and directly protected Assad, increasing its influence within the Syrian regime
Eva Koulouriotis
Koulouriotis goes on to talk about the Syrian-Lebanese border being of strategic importance for Hezbollah, the Iranians, and Israel and that Iranian leaders believe that a crushing defeat of Hezbollah would have negative consequences for their national security, as the group has provided a deterrent to Iran and its nuclear program.
After 2011, Iran intervened militarily and directly protected Assad, increasing its influence within the Syrian regime which has forced Assad to think carefully before taking any steps that would thwart Iranian interests, including in areas under his control, Koulouriotis explains, adding that a possible conflict over a strategic issue with the Iranian leadership could have serious repercussions for the security and economic situation in Syria and, possibly, for Assad himself.
Assad faces an equation that threatens the stability of his rule, with Iran believing that closing the Syrian-Lebanese border will accelerate the defeat of Hezbollah
Eva Koulouriotis
That is why, according to Koulouriotis, Assad has asked for Moscow’s help in a crisis involving Tehran that poses a threat to his regime’s stability at a time when the relationship between Russia and Iran has become more complex than initially thought, with contradictions emerging between their statements. While Russia claims to be a strategic ally of Iran, Tehran supports Moscow in Ukraine, supplying missiles and drones. However, in Yemen, the alliance is different, with Moscow hesitant to supply Russian-made Yakhont missiles and the S-400 system. Russia’s position is justified by the complexity of the situation, and relations between Russia and Iran change depending on the situation.
Thus, Assad faces an equation that threatens the stability of his rule, with Iran believing that closing the Syrian-Lebanese border will accelerate the defeat of Hezbollah and threaten national security while Russia is not prepared to intervene in this conflict.
Assad’s Syria is trapped between these three parties (Iran, Russia and Israel)
Eva Koulouriotis
This is while the Israeli government, Koulouriotis goes on to say, has three military scenarios to obstruct the flow of Iranian arms to Lebonon: extending the military offensive on Lebanese territory, launching a new ground offensive in the southwest of Syrian territory, and intensifying airstrikes on both sides. The Israeli air force has carried out dozens of airstrikes targeting official and unofficial crossing points on the Syrian-Lebanese border, assassinating three leaders of Unit 4400, affiliated with Hezbollah. However, the effectiveness of these strikes appears limited.
Koulouriotis concludes her article by emphasizing that Assad’s Syria is trapped between these three parties (Iran, Russia and Israel) and that the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah by the Israelis and the assassination of former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh by the Houthis fuel the fears of Assad of a similar fate but not before taking the permission from the Russians.
