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Tuesday, May 28, 2024

Breaking barriers: A vision for Syrian unity inspired by the West Germany scenario

In the tumultuous landscape of the Syrian conflict, where geopolitical interests converge and diverge, the quest for a lasting solution remains elusive. Against this backdrop of fragmentation and strife, a bold proposal emerges: The Syria Unification Initiative. Inspired by the historic example of West Germany’s reunification, this initiative offers a visionary approach to addressing Syria’s complex challenges. Central to this proposal is the concept of Bi-Zone unification, drawing parallels to the consolidation of American and British zones in post-war Germany. As the Syrian crisis reaches unprecedented levels of stagnation, this initiative presents a pathway towards unity in two phases: First, the consolidation of American and Turkish spheres of influence, and subsequently, the reunification of the entire nation. The rationale, principles, and procedural steps of this groundbreaking initiative are presented here in the hope of illuminating a path from fragmentation to unity for the Syrian people.

Syria Unification Initiative

Proposal for a solution to the Syrian Issue

West Germany Scenario: Political -Economy vision for Bi-Zone (US -Turkey)

2024

Executive Summary

At the Potsdam Conference on July 17 – August 2, 1945, after the defeat of the Nazis, the Allied powers in Germany established four areas of influence. Germany became four zones, each of the main Allied powers (the United States, the Soviet Union, Great Britain, and France) was responsible for the administration of its zone.

In 1947, the United States and Great Britain merged their zones Bi-Zone. After tensions arose between the Soviets and the Western powers, the German Federal Republic (FRG, or West Germany) was created out of the American, British, and French zones on September 21, 1949.

After three weeks, the Soviet Union created the German Democratic Republic (GDR, or East Germany) out of its zone of occupation on October 7, 1949.

West Germany’s government worked tirelessly to unify all the country and they succeeded on 3rd October 1990 and got rid of the control of the Soviet Union and restored national sovereignty.

Likewise, Syria has three areas of influence: Russia, the US, and Türkiye. This initiative seeks to call for the unification of two areas of American and Turkish influence Bi-Zone, which should be run by a Syrian government of technocrats as the first phase of whole country unification.

The Bi-Zone will prevail with its economic and administrative performance, and the government will work hard to convince the world to free the other zone and get unified with the Bi-Zone.

This initiative seeks reunifying Syria in two phases: (a) Bi-Zone unification (US–Türkiye), and (b) Bi-Zone with the rest of Syria. Following the example of Germany, which unified its eastern and western parts when the international political circumstances of the world allowed for the demolition of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989.

Introduction:

Based on Article 1 of the Charter of the United Nations, and the purposes of the international organization to maintain the internal peace wasted by the Assad regime and its allies, and  in order to stop the shedding of Syrian blood and facilitate the return of more than 10 million forcibly displaced, the release of hundreds of thousands of detainees, and to maintain peace with the region and the world after the outcome of the policy of the Assad regime in the manufacture and smuggling of Captagon, drugs, poisons and weapons to Arab brothers and the countries of the region, which led to Syria being placed under economic sanctions and turned into an export center of violence that is hostile to the whole world, and after the spread of militias that imposed themselves as a fait accompli in our country, of suspicious separatist initiatives that are being put forward in order to plunder wealth and tear apart the Syrian state and people, a collaboration of Syrian political powers and currents that composed this initiative are presenting it at this time with its procedural steps, coinciding with the Syrian issue reaching an unprecedented level of blockage and stagnation.

This project was first put forward in 2022 by Global Justice and the Arab Democratic Alliance in the context of the Syrian American Initiative and through two initiatives titled “West Germany Scenario” and “No Man’s Land”, which were officially handed over to the countries and parties concerned with the Syrian file, the ideas in them being interacted with in Syrian circles and their influence extending to the minds and banners of demonstrators in the north of Syria.

Rationale:

Due to the presence of the US army in the eastern and northeastern regions of Syria, and the Turkish army in the north and northwest, and the fact that the Syrian geography is still fragmented into three zones of influence so far (at the beginning of 2024), namely:

  1. The American zone of influence in the east and northeast:

It extends over approximately 25.64% of the Syrian geography, including the provinces of Deir ez-Zor, Hasaka and Raqqa, where American forces are deployed there in addition to what are known as the Syria Democratic Forces (SDF) and Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), the Democratic Union Party, the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its militias (Ypg, Ypj, Hiza, Hat) and the forces of Arab tribal communities.

  1. Russian and Iranian zone of influence:

It covers approximately 63.38% of the Syrian geography. This is the area that is still under the presumed control of the Assad regime, where Russian troops, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and affiliated militias such as the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Iraqi Nojabaa and Ahl al-Haq and the Afghani Fatemiyoun Brigade.

  1. Turkish influence zone in the north and northwest:

Its area exceeds 8,835 square kilometers, which is approximately 10.98% of the Syrian geography, and includes areas controlled by the Coalition and its Interim Government, the armed military factions (National Army), in addition to the Haya’t Tahrir al-Sham. In it, Turkish military and intelligence forces spread.

It is essential to note the presence of more than 3.6 million Syrian refugees in Türkiye registered on the UNHCR records for 2022 and more than 6.7 million internally displaced persons, most of whom reside in the Turkish zone of influence, and due to the paramount importance of the Syrian-Turkish border crossings — the length of which is approximately 911 miles — as it is the gateway of Syrians to the European and world markets.

It is also important to take into consideration the fact that the military forces present in these three areas are de facto authorities that have lost their decision and have no national legitimacy. These military forces do not do what they should regarding taking care of the affairs of citizens in those areas and meeting their needs.

It has also become evident that Russia’s neutrality and its neutral public role in managing and handling the Syrian file were lost, as it is not a neutral party, but rather a biased party mingling with the conflict with the Assad regime by confronting the Syrian people. This undermines Russia’s role to be a partner of the United Nations and the international community in the political process in Syria. Because Russia is no longer a partner of the international community and the United States in the political tracks and other regional and international files after its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 and its defiance of international law, which resulted in undermining international peace and security, which necessitated the imposition of dozens of sanctions and preventing dealing with it economically, Russia proves to be an unfit party to contribute to peace and stability.

Moreover, it is worthy noting that the political process in Syria has entered the stage of political stalemate and has not moved an inch; in fact, it has retreated, due to the intransigence of the Assad regime and its rejection of any change in its closed sectarian structure that is not amenable to the dues of the political process and political transition, due to the unlimited support of its Russian and Iranian partners, both by destroying Syrian territory and bombing the Syrian people; one of the most recent chapters of which was what happened in November and December of last year (2023) and caused a new displacement of about 200,000 Syrians from their camps. They are added to the millions of displaced Syrians before them under the guise of disrupting the course of international justice with the Russian-Chinese double and repeated veto in the Security Council to protect the Assad regime and standing in the face of holding it accountable for its crimes against Syrians.

This is in addition to the  stalled implementation of the UN and Security Council resolutions concerning the Syrian issue, and the emptying of Resolution 2254 of its content through Russian and Iranian support for it, as the political process was shortened by superficial “constitutional reforms” presented to the “People’s Assembly” in the Assad regime, a government of national unity with the presence of the Assad regime in addition to the Russian and Iranian armies and their intelligence, and presenting Russia and Iran through the Astana track as guarantors of a political solution to consecrate their presence on Syrian soil, which will mean committing tens of future Syrian generations to contracts for the sale of Syrian sovereign assets signed by the Assad regime, in addition to demanding Syrians to pay Russian and Iranian debts, the cost of supporting the Assad regime, consolidating its power and exterminating the Syrian people, which has exacerbated the unprecedented catastrophic economic situation that Syrians are living in. This is likely to be the subject of uncontrolled collapse of Syria, which is heading for the worst humanitarian disaster in the world since the Second World War.

It is also worth highlighting the inability of the United Nations to implement 13 UN resolutions, six presidential statements against the Assad regime in political affairs, its proven cooperation with bodies and companies affiliated with the Assad regime, as well as its failure to protect Syrian refugees in Lebanon from humiliation, deportation and depriving them of work and education, and violating UN resolutions 2118 of 2013, 2139 of 2014, 2165 of 2014, 2191 of 2014, 2254 of 2015, and 2258 in 2015 and others, in addition to the bombing and siege of cities in explicit violation of the decisions of the Fourth Geneva Convention that led to the starvation of Syrians. According to those decisions, an explicit war crime is being committed. This will also end with the disastrous announcement of the cessation of UN relief support to Syria starting from the beginning of the current year (2024), which increases the killing, starvation, and extermination of Syrians.

This is also in accordance with the responsibility of abiding by the Charter of the United Nations, maintaining international peace and security and human dignity, and reducing wars and deadly conflicts and the return of the atmosphere of war between the United States and the West with the Russian Federation, similar to the atmosphere that prevailed between them during the Second World War with the former Soviet Union, which divided Germany into protection zones as Syria is now. The plan is to address the situation of West Germany during the end of World War II, which began with the unification of the British and American protection zones, known as ” West Germany, and ended with the unification of both parts of Germany. This national initiative represents a large segment of Syrians who are looking to implement the plan that saved West Germany from its deteriorating situation after World War II by uniting the two zones of influence, the American and the Turkish, to get out of the political deadlock in the Syrian crisis, and to begin the reconstruction of Syria starting from those two areas under the American and Turkish auspices, and in cooperation with the countries of the Arab and Western worlds, through the application of something like the “Marshall Project”, and the establishment of a land and air bridge to revive the two protected zones and their accessories.

For all these reasons combined, and in an attempt to reduce the aggravation of the Syrian catastrophe and its evils being scattered throughout the region, undermining its stability, security, and future, and after confirming our commitment to permanent work to annex all Syrian territory, Russian and Iranian spheres of influence (which are similar to East Germany at that time) and our commitment to restore the entire Syrian geography as West Germany did by restoring East Germany, we present the following initiative in which we propose the following to the American Administration and the Turkish government:

(1)

a) A declaration by the United States that the eastern and northeastern areas of the governorates of Deir ez-Zor, Hasaka and Raqqa, which fall under its influence, are an American protection zone for a specified period no more than a maximum of two years starting from the date of the declaration.

b) Emptying the American protection zone from all terrorist organizations, and from the forces of the Assad regime and the Russian and Iranian regimes, expelling the foreign militias and organizations and all their branches and proxies, and dismantling what is known as the SDF, the SDC, the Democratic Union party, the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its militias (Ypg, Ypj, Hiza, Hat), and all its illegal bodies which it announced unilaterally.

c) The US protection zone will be expanded by closing the Iraqi-Syrian border with a depth of 30 km, extending parallel to the Iraqi-Syrian border to form a safety belt to cut off Iranian contact with the areas controlled by the forces supporting the Assad regime. In parallel with this, the Jordanian-Syrian border will be closed, 30 km deep, to stop the money laundering operations and the trade of Captagon, poisons, and weapons led by Iran with the Assad regime to harm the Arab countries.

d) The United States is to assist and coordinate with Jordan and defected patriotic Syrian officers and Arab tribes to control border security and reduce the smuggling of weapons and drugs that affect the security of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf countries to allay their concerns, which is a common Syrian-Arab interest.

e) The factional status shall be abolished and armed manifestations in civilian areas shall be prohibited.

(2)

a) The Turkish government shall declare the entire liberated northwestern Syrian region, which is under its influence, a Turkish-protected zone for a specified period not exceeding a maximum of two years starting from the date of the declaration.

b) During this period, the Turkish government is expected to be working to empty the area of all terrorist enclaves, including the forces of the Assad regime as well as Russian and Iranian regimes, and the removal of foreign militias and organizations and all their branches and proxies.

c) All institutions belonging to the Inqath (Salvation) government formed by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and its like will be dissolved.

d) The factional status shall be abolished and armed manifestations in civilian areas shall be prohibited.

(3)

The declaration of the Turkish protected zone in the northwest and the American protected zone in the northeast as friendly zones, which must be defended against any military attacks launched by the Assad regime or its allies, or any sabotage operations carried out by terrorist militias.

(4)

A document of agreement on preliminary principles between the American and Turkish parties shall be signed. It shall explicitly stipulate respect for the unity of the Syrian land and people and their commitment to the implementation of Security Council resolutions related to the Syrian issue, including Resolution 2254 issued in December 2015 based on the Geneva Statement 1 document issued on June 30, 2012, and all relevant resolutions. The presence of the forces of the two parties on Syrian territory is for a temporary period, and they shall undertake to leave the territory gradually in coordination with the national government as soon as the national possibility of protecting Syrians from external aggressions is confirmed.

(5)

Immediately after the signing of the agreement, the two protection authorities will work on the following procedural steps:

a) The formation of a provisional Syrian technocratic government, which will organize elections for a Special Representative Council for the protection zones, and temporarily adopt, according to due process, the Constitution of 1950 and its amendments, which was approved by the Syrian Constituent Assembly and issued on September 5, to be followed by the procedures of forming a new government without the intervention of the American or Turkish protection forces in the SYRIAN administrative and economic affairs.

b) Facilitate the voluntary return of displaced Syrians from the people of the two protection zones in a dignified and safe manner to their cities, towns, and villages that they were forced to leave, this return begins from the date of signing a document to agree on the initial principles between the American and Turkish parties referred to in Item 4 above.

c) Holding free and fair elections for members of city and governorate councils, in accordance with Syrian Local Administration Law No. 15 issued on 11/5/1971, which was suspended by the Assad regime. The elections will be organized under the supervision of the United Nations, the United States, Turkey, and representatives of Arab countries, and through a Syrian national committee that manages the elections within a safe and truly democratic atmosphere.

d) The election of a Special Representative Council for the two protection zones that truly represents the two regions through free and fair elections under the supervision of the United Nations, the United States, and Turkey, and through a Syrian national committee that manages the elections in a safe and democratic atmosphere.

e) The formation of a committee to prepare a draft constitution of the “Basic Document” for the protection zones to be put to a free and fair public referendum in these areas with the supervision of the United Nations, Syrian and foreign civil society organizations under the auspices of the United Nations  and American-Turkish protection

f) The formation of an interim government to run the protection zones immediately after the completion of the election of the Representatives Council in them.

g) The transfer from the government of technocrats to the elected government under the supervision of the Representative Council of the two protected regions.

h) The Representative Council and the interim government (technocrats) will prepare programs for the mechanisms to unite Syria, the land, and the people as soon as the appropriate political and global conditions are achieved.

i) The minister of defense of the interim government of technocrats, in cooperation with the willing defecting officers from the Syrian regime army, will arrange the affairs of the Ministry of Defense (in a professional manner), end the factional situation, and form a national army of the young men of the protection zones under American and Turkish supervision to ensure the support of the new national army with the necessary money. The Defense Ministry is allocated a budget paid by the interim government through the Finance Ministry to secure its high position and the loyalty of the soldiers to the homeland. This budget is taken initially from the forces of the two protection zones until the government covers them financially from local resources.

j) The minister of defense in the government of technocrats is, temporarily, a former officer of high rank who is recognized for integrity and patriotism, and then the occupant of this position in the first elected government can be a civilian or a military man.

k) The minister of the interior in the interim government of technocrats, in cooperation with the willing officers who defected from the Assad regime police who were part of the staff of the Ministry of Interior, will manage the affairs of the internal security institution (in a professional manner), and form civilian police from the people of the protection zones under Turkish-American supervision to ensure the support of the police institution with the necessary financial support and weapons. The Ministry of Interior is allocated a budget paid by the government to ensure its high position and the loyalty of the police institution and its personnel to the homeland, and this budget is temporarily secured from the forces of the American and Turkish protection zones until the government can secure it from local resources.

L) The Syrian technocrat government and subsequent governments will adopt an economic development program that raises the standard of living for Syrians, ensures a decent level of health and educational services, an atmosphere of good governance, separation of powers, and freedom of the judiciary, media, expression, and free opinion. This will create an attractive climate for Syrian, Arab, and international investments that generate job opportunities for Syrians in the two protection zones and raise their efficiency.

     We are fully confident that by dissolving all the de facto authorities, without exception, following a policy of zeroing in on problems with the world, appointing a Syrian technocratic government that runs the US and Turkish zones of influence, organizing a representative civil status based on the approved Syrian constitution and laws that have their validity and no one disagreed with, in addition to holding a Syrian Marshall Project similar to what happened in the West German scenario, thanks to our great Syrian people with all their experience and wealth and the support of their Arab brothers and the friendly countries of the world, we will be able in just five years to achieve 64 billion dollars, which is the same as the national income of all of Syria in 2010.

Political signatory bodies supporting the initiative:

In addition to the main political bodies and organizations that support this initiative, there are many Syrian’ Civil Syndicates, NGOs, Syrian Arab tribes, and political organizations also supporting this initiative. (List ready upon request)

All political currents, civil society organizations, trade union groups, and Syrian national figures are invited to join the initiative, discuss, support, and develop it, and work on its implementation.

The official spokesmen for the initiative:

(Arabic & English) Dr. Osama Kadi (Canada) Kadi@dimasheq.com

(Arabic & German) Mr. Ibrahim Aljabin (Germany) aljabin@dimasheq.com

For more info about this initiative, please visit the following YouTube links:

Video 1, Video 2, Video 3 & Video 4

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