From Closed Factories to New Cities: A Syrian–German Economic Deal to Address Migration

Germany’s Long-Term Refugee Challenge

Germany’s approach to the Syrian refugee issue has long been grounded in humanitarian responsibility. Since 2015, the country has hosted one of the largest Syrian communities in the world, with nearly one million Syrians residing in Germany today.

However, after nearly a decade, what began as an emergency response has evolved into a long-term economic and structural challenge, both financially and socially.

Germany continues to spend billions of euros annually on hosting refugees, integrating them, and providing social support. Federal transfers to municipalities reached approximately €3.9 billion in 2023 alone, while direct payments to asylum seekers exceed €6 billion annually. When factoring in housing, education, and long-term integration, total costs are estimated at €15–20 billion per year.

Germany’s Industrial Decline

At the same time, another parallel crisis is emerging, less visible, yet equally significant.

Germany is experiencing a notable wave of business closures and industrial decline. In 2024 alone, approximately 196,000 companies shut down, a historically high figure, while around 24,000 insolvencies were recorded in 2025. Hundreds of thousands of small and medium-sized enterprises face increasing pressure. The industrial sector lost over 100,000 jobs in 2024, with the downward trend continuing.

These two phenomena, rising migration costs and a declining industrial base, are rarely linked, despite their clear economic connection.

“Germany’s industrial decline and rising migration costs are two parallel crises, rarely linked, yet economically inseparable.”

Dr. Osama Kadi 

A Unified Economic Opportunity

Today’s challenge is no longer merely how to manage refugees or rescue struggling businesses, but how to transform both challenges into a single, integrated opportunity. Here emerges the idea of a Syrian German partnership as a realistic and practical solution.

Proposed Syrian–German Economic Zones

The Syrian government could provide a large-scale economic platform for relocating and expanding German industrial activity by allocating two million square meters in each of three strategic regions in Syria: the south, center, and north.

Each region would be divided into two complementary components:

Industrial Development

One million square meters dedicated to industrial development, hosting German factories, supply chains, and production activities.

Urban and Social Development

And one million square meters dedicated to urban and social development, implemented under a Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) model, including housing for returnees, hospitals, schools, commercial centers, public parks, sports facilities, and integrated service complexes.

These zones could carry a distinct economic and symbolic identity, such as “Erhard Industrial Zones,” referencing the social market economy model, while residential areas could be developed as modern, European-standard communities under the name “German–Syrian Compounds.”

Beyond Factories: Building Economic Cities

This project is not merely about relocating factories, it represents the creation of fully integrated economic cities.

For German companies, especially those that have closed or lost competitiveness within Germany, this model offers a chance to restart. Lower production costs, reconstruction-driven demand, and proximity to Middle Eastern markets all contribute to restoring profitability and competitiveness.

For Germany, this represents an externalized industrial policy.
For Syria, it is large-scale economic reconstruction.

Job Creation and Migration Dynamics

The proposal sets a clear and measurable goal: creating 200,000 jobs within five years.

Economic Logic

The mechanism is straightforward and reflects economic logic:

• The more factories are established, the more jobs are created.
• The more jobs are created, the more attractive voluntary return becomes.

Migration follows opportunity. Without jobs, return is unrealistic; with jobs, return becomes a rational and appealing choice.

Even a modest start could have a significant impact. A voluntary return of just 5% of Syrians in Germany, around 40,000 to 50,000 people, could form the human foundation for these industrial zones, training programs, and reconstruction efforts. Considering that each worker typically supports a family of four, the return of 40,000 workers would translate into approximately 200,000 Syrians returning to their homeland.

Financial Perspective

Financially, the comparison is clear. Germany currently funds the presence and needs of Syrian refugees through continuous social spending exceeding $10 billion annually. Redirecting part of this expenditure toward productive investment in Syria, in industry, housing, and training, could reduce long-term financial burdens while generating economic returns.

According to conservative estimates, this approach could save Germany at least $10 billion over five years, while simultaneously supporting industrial expansion and stabilizing migration dynamics.

This is not merely cost reduction; it is a strategic restructuring of public spending. Instead of financing long-term dependency, Germany would invest in revitalizing its industrial capacity through external expansion, supply chain diversification, reconstruction-driven growth, and a sustainable migration solution.

Transformative Impact on Syria

For Syria, the results would be transformative.

Creating 200,000 jobs within five years would not only restart the economy, but also restore confidence, rebuild the middle class, and reconnect Syrians with their homeland.

This is the decisive factor: refugees do not return to instability, they return to opportunity, dignity, and a future.

Building an integrated ecosystem that combines industry, vocational education, and high-quality urban development would create an environment where return is not only possible, but desirable.

“Refugees do not return to instability, they return to opportunity, dignity, and a future.”

Dr. Osama Kadi 

A New Migration Equation

Over time, this model could fundamentally reshape the migration equation. Instead of being a permanent burden on Germany’s budget, migration would become a transitional process gradually resolved through investment and job creation.

Thus, this proposal represents a genuine win-win model. On one hand, Germany reduces financial pressure, revitalizes its industry, and stabilizes migration. On the other hand, Syria gains investment, employment, and the return of its people within a modern economic and social environment.

The Alternative and the Opportunity

The alternative is clear: without such an approach, Germany will continue to bear rising refugee costs while its industrial base declines, over 200,000 companies closed in 2024, and more than 20,000 declared insolvency due to rising production costs.

This proposal offers a lifeline to those companies, leveraging Syrian labor, Syrian government support in providing land for industrial and reconstruction zones, and potential tax incentives.

But the opportunity is equally clear: transforming closed factories into new beginnings, this time in Syria.

The Key Question

The question is no longer whether Syrians will return.

The real question is:

“Is there German political will, Syrian readiness, and mutual acceptance of this comprehensive package for the benefit of both sides?”