Recently the Assad regime has been able to open a negotiation channel with Erdogan’s Turkey, along with members of the Arab League, at a time when European political shifts have been opening the door for further political gains on the side of the Assad regime. This follows recent attempts by neighboring countries to deport masses of Syrian refugees from their respective countries, attempting to return them to Syria which multiple regional governments have deemed “safe” even though reality says otherwise. Lebanese, Iraqi, Turkish, and European authorities have all taken actions, putting the Syrian refugee issue on the table to bargain with Assad. Their actions have met with limited success thus far but could set a dangerous precedent.
Hezbollah has been exploiting the issue of refugees to act as a smoke screen for its criminal behavior within the country, commonly citing Syrian scapegoats as the cause for crimes, robbery, murder, and even high-profile assassinations
In Lebanon, the pre-2011 population of Syrians, most of them foreign workers, dual nationals, and visitors of extended families from bordering villages, was around 400,000. Since 2011 1.5 million Syrians have fled to Lebanon to escape the violence of the Assad regime and its allies. One of these allies, Hezbollah, resides in Lebanon, both within Beirut and primarily in the Southeastern frontiers of the country. Hezbollah has been exploiting the issue of refugees to act as a smoke screen for its criminal behavior within the country, commonly citing Syrian scapegoats as the cause for crimes, robbery, murder, and even high-profile assassinations such as the case of Lebanese Forces Member Pascal Sleiman who was murdered on April 9th in the Byblos area of Lebanon.
Although Lebanese judicial officials claim that Sleiman was killed by a car theft gang comprised of Syrians, the political motives of killing a member of the anti-Assad, anti-Hezbollah movement is far from the interest of common Syrians, but instead acommon tactic of the neighboring regime which has long plagued the reputation of Syria within Lebanese society as a result of its violent legacy. Even without a clear indictment of Hezbollah and Assad, Hassan Nasrallah’s inflammatory rhetoric regarding Syrians is a distraction to keep eyes away from his probable complicity in yet another notable assassination of an anti-Assad Lebanese politician.
Towards the South, Iraq hosts around 280,000 Syrians according to the UNHCR, most of whom are within the autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan region. On April 3rd the Kurdistan Regional Government suspended the issuance of visas to Syrians, despite the Iraqi federal supreme court banning the deportation of Syrian refugees last year.
Turkey continues to maintain an open border with Syria causing security challenges on all sides while at the same time continuing to claim to support a democratic opposition
Before 2011, Syria itself hosted around 150,000 Iraqi refugees who were fleeing violence since the 2003-US-led invasion of Iraq. However, the sudden turn is not without surprise given the geopolitical elements dominated by Iran. Iran, which currently backs the leading political factions in Iraq, can influence Iraqi domestic and international politics to promote its own interests; in the case of Syrians, it is sending them back into Syria where Pro-Iran militiamen (60,000) override the country’s sense of sovereignty, something that Hafez Assad sold long ago.
In Turkey, where the largest number of Syrian refugees (3.2 million according to the UNHCR) are hosted, this population has been subjected to violence from both Turkish authorities and Turkish mobsters. Last year, Turkey successfully deported over 57,000 Syrians although Turkish military assets remain inside Syrian territory. In this case, the Erdogan regime appears to be trying to play both sides. On one hand, Erdogan has suggested he is open to negotiations with the Assad regime, while on the other hand, Turkey continues to maintain an open border with Syria causing security challenges on all sides while at the same time continuing to claim to support a democratic opposition.
According to the International Organization for Migration, 92% of Syrians living in Turkey report being exposed to discrimination and that more than half of Turkish participants in a separate survey, viewed Syrians as a “less talented race”. Even within Turkey’s political opposition, the racial sentiments famously associated with Turkish nationalists run wild.
The despicable model of Assad bombing his own country, displacing its citizens, and then negotiating to keep his regime alive while continuing to quell all opposition
As to how this affects the European Union, Hassan Nasrallah notably said “open the seas” about Hezbollah’s view that Lebanon should open the door to displacing Syrian refugees to Europe to compel the European Union to bend to Assad’s pressure campaign. While the radical Shi’ite militia has claimed to fight for the return of Palestinians to their homelands in Palestine, they have failed to bring the return of a single Palestinian. Rather, they have aided Assad in the killing of thousands of Syrians and the overall displacement of 14 million from their homeland, more than the global population of Lebanese citizens who are growingly fed up with the militia’s domination of Lebanese institutions.
The despicable model of Assad bombing his own country, displacing its citizens, and then negotiating to keep his regime alive while continuing to quell all opposition and aspirations of the Syrian people, is bound to succeed if the international community cannot see through this tactic, especially during times of heightened security due to many global conflicts.
Syria will never again be a viable entity until it is free of notorious torture institutions like Saydnaya Prison, and the infamous Mukhabarat and Shabiha agencies that kill dissidents who dare to speak against the Assad regime. These long-standing Syrian institutions that have kept the Assads in power for decades must be eradicated along with Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps who all fought on the same frontier against freedom. Those who created the refugees are now basking in the social and economic anger of populations buying into the scapegoat tactics that are now serving as a lifeline for those who perpetrated the worst crimes.
