Thursday, February 2, 2023
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Thursday, February 2, 2023

Opinion | Will a ‘West Germany’ scenario help in Syria?

It did not occur to many Germans after their loss in World War II that their country would soon rise from the ashes, as there were members of the US Congress who recommended making Germany an agricultural country devoid of industry.

The genius of Ludwig Erhard, professor of German economics, and the intelligence of the American strategy under Harry Truman are what turned the scales and made West Germany a prestigious economic entity that triumphed over the Soviet Union by the power of the economic model.

There is a reality similar to the atmosphere of the world war existing now in Syria

Dr. Osama Kadi
Ludwig Erhard; Credit: Bundesregierung/o.A.

West Germany was nothing but the unification of the American and British spheres of influence and later joined the French one.

There is a reality similar to the atmosphere of the world war existing now in Syria, especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Syria is now under three spheres of influence, Russian, American and Turkish.

Let’s imagine the following scenario. The American decision-maker captures this historical moment to restore the days of American glory, politically and strategically, through its victory in a similar model in Syria by unifying the American and Turkish areas of influence (in what I called in my recent book on reconstruction scenarios in Syria “West Germany scenario”) so as to have one area in northern Syria with democratic tools after the return of Syrians to their areas and the holding of free and fair elections – like what happened in West Germany – headed by a technocratic government so that the Syrians regain their economic strength and the area will be attractive for Syrians, both refugees and displaced, in neighboring countries to return to build their country under joint US-Turkish auspices.

In this case, the American decision-maker will present a model of a true democratic Syria without using the current tools as de facto authorities, but rather real elected representatives of their regions, and thus the economic development model that is internationally supported and reconciled with the world will triumph.

Will President Biden enter history as Truman did and build with his Turkish “partner” the new West Germany model on the Syrian soil?

Dr. Osama Kadi

If the Russian-Turkish honeymoon is also used, there might have been a possibility of annexing the entire Aleppo to the two areas of influence, especially since the Syrian regime is unable to manage its areas and the people suffer from a shortage of water, electricity and food, and thus America and Turkey will be in charge of providing care for the people in the city of Aleppo.

Will President Biden enter history as Truman did and build with his Turkish “partner” the new West Germany model on the Syrian soil? Then, it will be a Syrian Marshall Plan, which welcomes Syrian, American, European, Turkish and Arab companies and guarantees the security of Syria’s neighbors for generations to come.

The scenario of a Syrian West Germany will be a form of unifying Syria in two stages on the German way

Dr. Osama Kadi

A free and democratic Syria in the north will pursue a policy of “zero problems” with the world and seeks to unify the rest of the Syrian territory, as the West Germans did, where the dream of their unity was realized forty years after the fall of the Soviet Union.

The scenario of a Syrian West Germany will be a form of unifying Syria in two stages on the German way. So, will Biden and Erdogan do it?

Osama Kadi
Osama Kadi
Holds an MA, an MBA and a Ph.D. in Economics; Economic & administrative advisor; Lecturer of Microeconomics, Macroeconomics, and Business; Appears on media to analyze international and Syrian economic matters

1 COMMENT

  1. الفكرة ممتازة لكن لا اعتقد انها قابلة للتطبيق ليس لعلة فيها و انما لانها تقوم على افتراض ،، التقسيم ،، وهو افتراض خاطئ قانونيّاً ، ولا اعتقد ان التقسيم واقع من الناحية القانونية ومازالت سورية موحدة من وجهة نظر الامم المتحدة ، حتى يمكن تطبيق هذه المقاربة كان يفترض بالمعارضة القيام بتشكيل هيئة تأسيسيّة تقوم على صياغة اعلان دستوري و تعمل بعد ذلك على تشكيل حكومة سورية تهدف لاستعادة مكانة سورية في المنظمات الدولية والحلول محل النظام عندها يمكن القول اننا نملك قاعدة قانونية للانطلاق نحو استعادة الاراضي السورية الى وضعها الطبيعي كوحدة جغرافية

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