Threats to close the Strait of Hormuz are not new. We recall Iran’s threats in 2008 following escalating tensions with the United States, and the more explicit statements in 2011 in response to European oil sanctions. Again, in July 2018, after the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear agreement, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani articulated a well-known and dangerous strategic doctrine during his visit to Europe: “If Iran cannot export its oil, then no country in the region will be able to export its oil.” This statement was welcomed by Ali Khamenei and coincided with tanker incidents and threats by the Revolutionary Guard to close the strait.
Similar threats resurfaced in 2020 following the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, along with intermittent warnings between 2021 and 2023, and again in 2025. Today, we face the latest escalation, denied officially by Iran despite possessing around 5,000 naval mines, the alleged planting of mines in the strait on March 17, 2026.
In a world of growing geopolitical uncertainty, the global energy system has become heavily dependent on a limited number of critical choke points, foremost among them the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of global oil supplies pass daily. Any disruption, whether due to military escalation or political tensions, can trigger shocks in global markets and threaten the stability of both producing and consuming economies.
For Gulf oil-exporting states, after facing more than 500 ballistic missiles and over 2,000 explosive-laden drones, this threat is no longer hypothetical, it has become a structural reality that demands bold and proactive solutions. Among these solutions, a strategic option is re-emerging: the revival and modernization of the Tapline (Trans-Arabian Pipeline).
History shows that major projects are often born in times of uncertainty and transformation. The Tapline itself was established in 1947 within a complex geopolitical context, yet it succeeded due to a clear strategic vision. Stretching 1,664 kilometers, it once connected Abqaiq in Saudi Arabia on the Arabian Gulf to the Lebanese port of Sidon on the Mediterranean. The proposed modern version would instead terminate in Baniyas, Syria, replacing Sidon.
Today, the strategic justifications for the project have not only returned but have become more urgent than ever. It is worth noting that Tapline operations through Syria ceased in 1976, declined significantly by 1983, and were permanently shut down in 1990.
“Tapline is no longer history, it is a strategic imperative reborn.”
Dr. Osama Kadi
The region now stands at a similar historical moment. The question is no longer whether Gulf states need alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz, that is already settled, but whether they are ready to invest in a solution that combines realism with ambition.
From a security perspective, near-total reliance on the Strait of Hormuz represents a major strategic risk. It is one of the most militarily sensitive areas in the world, and any disruption leads to sharp increases in shipping and insurance costs, along with oil price volatility. A high-capacity overland pipeline to the Mediterranean would bypass this critical bottleneck and ensure export continuity under all conditions.
Economically, pipeline transport offers significant cost advantages over maritime shipping, particularly at scale. The integration of modern technologies, such as digital monitoring systems and AI-driven predictive maintenance, would further enhance efficiency, reduce environmental risks, and lower operational costs.
A key element in redesigning this project is the endpoint. Historically, the pipeline ended in Sidon, Lebanon. However, current geopolitical and economic realities point to a more viable option: Baniyas, Syria.
Baniyas offers clear strategic advantages. It already hosts a refinery and export infrastructure, reducing the need for major new investments and shortening implementation timelines. Routing the pipeline through Syria also provides a more centralized regulatory environment compared to Lebanon’s historically complex political landscape.
For Syria, this project represents a historic opportunity to reintegrate into the regional economy after years of war and isolation. Serving as a key transit corridor for Gulf oil exports would generate significant revenues, create jobs, and attract foreign investment, supporting reconstruction and economic stabilization.
At the regional level, reviving the Tapline would establish a new energy corridor linking Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait to European markets via the Mediterranean. This would enhance energy security not only for the Gulf but also for Europe, which seeks to diversify its energy sources and supply routes.
“Syria stands to transform from a war-torn state into a strategic gateway for global energy.”
Dr. Osama Kadi
Reviving and upgrading, not merely rehabilitating, the Tapline to reach a capacity of up to five million barrels per day would require building multiple parallel pipelines and pumping stations, with Baniyas as the terminal point. This represents a strategic step toward enhancing energy security, reducing costs, and supporting regional stability.
Reliance on a single corridor is no longer a safe option. The future belongs to those who possess alternatives. Yet Tapline alone is not enough. A deeper vision requires building an integrated system, highlighting the critical importance of developing the Kirkuk–Baniyas pipeline and increasing its capacity from around 300,000 barrels per day to four million barrels per day.
The End of Strait of Hormuz: Syria and the Arab Energy Corridor
This integration, combining Gulf oil (via Tapline) and Iraqi oil (via Kirkuk–Baniyas), would create a multi-source regional energy corridor that is more flexible and resilient.
Avoiding bottlenecks and mitigating risks associated with maritime transport, such as rising insurance and shipping costs, requires neutralizing the world’s most dangerous choke points through pipeline transport, which is more cost-effective.
Completing the energy system also requires addressing global gas flows. This underscores the importance of advancing the Qatari gas pipeline project through Syria to Turkey and Europe, alongside a branch line to Baniyas for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports via the Mediterranean. This would necessitate building advanced gas infrastructure similar to Algeria’s, including liquefaction plants, large storage facilities, and the expansion of Baniyas port to include LNG export capabilities, supported by high-tech industrial and electrical systems. The goal would be to handle at least 30 million tons of LNG annually (approximately 42 billion cubic meters), expandable to 50 million tons.
While Syria would gain enormous economic benefits and job opportunities, Qatar would also achieve strategic advantages by reducing reliance on maritime routes through the insecure Strait of Hormuz, lowering costs and shipping times, and enhancing its ability to meet European demand. In doing so, Syrians would reciprocate the support extended by Gulf nations for Syria’s freedom and development, while strengthening the Gulf’s position as a reliable global energy supplier.
The prolonged crisis of the Strait of Hormuz, affecting the world and regional partners for over two decades, should serve as a moment of strategic Arab awakening. This awareness lies in the unprecedented integration of energy projects centered in Syria, positioning it as a global gateway: combining Tapline and Gulf oil, the Qatari gas pipeline to Turkey and Europe, the Kirkuk–Baniyas oil route, and an LNG export branch from Baniyas. This integration can be summarized by the term NAGHAM (an acronym for Oil + Gas + Ports).
Together, these projects, (4+1): Tapline, Qatari gas, Kirkuk pipeline, Baniyas LNG branch, plus a high-speed railway from Saudi Arabia to Syria have the potential to reshape the global energy landscape.
“Syria is emerging as the strategic gateway of a new Arab energy order.”
Dr. Osama Kadi
With serious commitment from Arab sovereign and investment funds, these projects could be completed in less than three years, regardless of cost. They represent not only economic ventures but pillars of Arab security and stability.
History may one day record that Syria united its regional partners around a vital strategic project, serving as a key to security, political stability, energy resilience, and even food security if integrated with the proposed high-speed railway linking Saudi Arabia to Syria via Jordan.
This vision reflects the essence of Saudi Vision 2030 under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The question remains: will Arab sovereign funds move to complete these projects and transform the future of global energy, while strengthening Arab food security, and send a clear message to the world: “The era of Hormuz is over.”
