Damascus is freed from Assad and the armed Syrian opposition reached his presidential palace while Israeli warplanes were preparing to start a military operation in Syria by air and land. The following is a geopolitical reading of the Syrian-Israeli border between concerns in Israel and hopes in Damascus.
At dawn on Sunday, December 8, while the armed Syrian opposition forces had begun to enter the Syrian capital of Damascus, the Israeli Air Force launched the first wave of attacks which targeted strategic warehouses of the Syrian army in the Jabal al-Manea area in al-Kiswah and in the western Damascus countryside, They also targeted scientific research centers in the Jamraya area, where chemical weapons are developed and manufactured.
This wave was followed by additional air raids on Sunday and Monday which expanded to include air defense batteries, missile warehouses, military development centers, defense factories, radars, and chemical weapons warehouses in Damascus, the surrounding areas, the provinces of Daraa, Sweida, Aleppo, Deir ez-Zor, Latakia, Tartous, the own of Yafour and the Masyaf area. Security square and the immigration and passports building in the heart of the Syrian capital of Damascus were also targetted. The Israelis intend to continue these raids for several days according to information given to me by a security source.
“Syria is now outside the Iranian axis in the region and it has joined the countries hostile to Iran and Hezbollah after thirteen years of their participation in killing and displacing the Syrian people“
Eva J. Koulouriotis
In parallel with the first Israeli air strikes in Syria, Israeli special ground units were crossing the Blue Line on the Syrian-Israeli border, which was drawn in 1974 as part of the so-called ‘disengagement agreement’ between the two countries. The advance was along two axes: the first was towards the Syrian army’s positions on Mount Hermon after the withdrawal of Syrian forces with the fall of the Assad regime in Damascus. The second axis was towards the city of Quneitra, where they penetrated about 7 km deep into Syrian territory.
While the Israeli government indicates that this advance is a temporary action, in my opinion, the premeditated plan may expand to include other areas in the Quneitra Governorate, and it may include the Druze town of Hadar.
In the political reading of this escalation, Israel has concerns about three issues in the Syrian arena: the first is the Syrian-Lebanese border and the fear of weapons being transferred to Hezbollah militia in Lebanon. This concern has been eliminated by two aspects: first, all Hezbollah fighters have withdrawn from Syrian territory and the IDF have targeted the land border crossings between the two countries. On the other hand, with the armed Syrian opposition taking control of Damascus, it can be said with certainty that Syria is now outside the Iranian axis in the region and it has joined the countries hostile to Iran and Hezbollah after thirteen years of their participation in killing and displacing the Syrian people. This is what Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated today in an interview, where he confirmed that Hezbollah is looking for new means away from Syria to restore its military capabilities.
“Syria after Assad is no longer an enemy of Israel, but rather an enemy of Israel’s enemies. It would have been better for Israel, which needs an environment free of enemies, to consider the fall of Assad as the opening of a new page with Damascus”
Eva J. Koulouriotis
The main core of politics, unlike militarism, is reducing enemies and building alliances. The Netanyahu government has chosen a dangerous, wrong and reckless step that may have negative repercussions on Israel’s security. Let us remember that the Hamas militia on October 7 did not attack Israel with warplanes and chemical weapons, but with individual weapons and locally made missiles. Today, Syria is full of individual weapons and locally made missiles, and a people searching for freedom and peace. Either Israel knocks on the door of politics or creates new enemies. While Netanyahu is busy bombing Syria, Iran is preparing for its nuclear bomb. The opportunity for politics with Syria is still available.
Netanyahu and his government acted in a wrong way. Syria after Assad is no longer an enemy of Israel, but rather an enemy of Israel’s enemies. It would have been better for Israel, which needs an environment free of enemies, to consider the fall of Assad as the opening of a new page with Damascus, a page in which Israel supports the reconstruction of Syria and shows goodwill towards the Syrian people, not a page that starts by bombing them and spoiling their joy of liberation. It is as if Netanyahu is saying to the Syrian people: Assad is gone, and I am your new enemy.
“If the Israeli government had information about the existence of these weapons after 2013, why did it not hand it over to the United Nations and the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons when Assad was still in Damascus? And why did they not bomb it at that time?”
Eva J. Koulouriotis
Third, the file of chemical and strategic weapons in Syria. Here, as observers, we have the right to ask why the Assad regime possesses chemical weapons despite its promise to hand over its entire stockpile of these weapons after the attacks on Ghouta in the suburbs of Damascus in 2013? We also have the right to ask Israel a few questions. If the Israeli government had information about the existence of these weapons after 2013, why did it not hand it over to the United Nations and the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons when Assad was still in Damascus? And why did they not bomb it at that time? Away from these questions, the Netanyahu government could now provide all the information it has about this file to the United Nations. It is certain that the new government in Syria, which represents those who have suffered from these weapons, will cooperate in handing them over and dismantling the research centers associated with their development and manufacture.
As for the Syrian-Israeli border file, the Israeli government fears that the Golan Heights will be exposed to attacks from within Syrian territory, but in practice, the armed Syrian opposition groups that controlled the provinces of Daraa, Quneitra and the southern Damascus countryside were basically affiliated with the MOC room of which Jordan and the US were part, and therefore they are disciplined and have no desire to pose any threat to Israel. The past years confirm this on the ground, as the armed Syrian opposition controlled large parts of the provinces of Daraa and Quneitra, and Israeli territory was not exposed to any noteworthy attacks.
In contrast, this incursion, although limited, constitutes an embarrassment to the armed Syrian opposition in front of their people and in the region. Furthermore, in light of the instability of the political and military scene, this step may lead to retaliatory reactions which could have been avoided by opening channels of communication with the Syrian opposition through intermediaries to confirm Israel’s security. Since it only stands to reason that the Syrian opposition is focused solely on rebuilding its country and not making enemies, it would be the rational thing for Israel to do because no one can win on geography.
